things are unsettled we see here in israel and that leaves us unclear on how to set our bets for new developments;

Today’s story in the NY Times, which details a growing clash between Israeli Generals and the Netanyahu government, comes on the heels of a similar report last week in the Washington Post. According to the NY Times:

Israel’s top generals want to begin a cease-fire in Gaza even if it keeps Hamas in power for the time being, widening a rift between the military and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has opposed a truce that would allow Hamas to survive the war.

The generals think that a truce would be the best way of freeing the roughly 120 Israelis still held, both dead and alive, in Gaza, according to interviews with six current and former security officials.

Underequipped for further fighting after Israel’s longest war in decades, the generals also think their forces need time to recuperate in case a land war breaks out against Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that has been locked in a low-level fight with Israel since October, multiple officials said.

Wow! There is a dose of bad news. When your army is “underequipped” and exhausted, the last thing you want to do is start a new offensive against a military force that is well-equipped and rested. That would be Hezbollah. Last week at this time I was genuinely worried that Israel would make good on its bombast and launch itself into southern Lebanon. Now, in light of this information, I no longer think an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon is imminent. This does not mean that Israel will relent in its aerial bombardment of suspected Hezbollah enclaves, but a bombing campaign will not defeat the ground force that Hezbollah has in place to confront an Israeli attack.

Consider this — Israel claims that after almost eight months of unrelenting destruction of Palestinian homes, schools, hospitals and businesses, it has killed 14,000 Hamas fighters. I have no way of judging the accuracy of that claim. Well, here is another number — 100,000. That is the estimated size of the Hezbollah army and they are well-secured in heavily fortified bunkers waiting for the Israeli promised offensive. Since Israel has been unable to defeat and destroy Hamas guerrillas after eight months of brutal fighting, how does it propose to vanquish a real Hezbollah force staffed by combat veterans who have spent a decade fighting ISIS in Syria?

Maybe that is why senior Israeli officers are saying the following:..........more.........