Wednesday, July 31, 2024

 commercial real estate is collapsing and its causing a few bank difficulties;


The commercial real estate downturn is still underway, posing significant risks for investors across financial markets. CRE-linked equities, corporate credit, structured credit, and private markets all feel the impacts of major unwinds as property prices plunge. 

While headwinds from high interest rates may diminish in the coming quarters, with rate traders pricing in the possibility of the first 25bps cut as early as the mid-September FOMC meeting, the critical question is whether these projected rate cuts will be adequate to cushion the landing. 

Office tower valuations remain sloped in a downward trend, plummeting in many cases, as vacancy rates soar as remote work trends keep white-collar workers out of the office and at home. These imploding values remain a massive threat to regional banks, with the CRE crisis likely to persist through 2025. 

X user Triple Net Investor offers a sobering reality of the CRE space. He closely follows the space and noted dozens of recent valuation declines for malls, towers, and multi-family properties. .....more.......

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