ukraine is winning just like the empire has been winning for the recent past, or should i say since ww2;

My Thursday article ridiculing the DIA’s top dog for analysis, Dr. Trent Maul, for his banal comments about Ukraine’s prospects for success was written with the assumption that he was interviewed by Newsweek. Boy, was I wrong. Maul’s musings on Ukraine’s “realistic prospects” of future success also appeared in The Economist and the U.K.’s Telegraph. I cannot discern if he spoke to the three reporters (Economist, Newsweek and Telegraph) individually or as a group? Or, did he only speak to The Economist and the other two repeated parts of his interview and put their own spin on it?

Regardless, this was not just some run-of-the-mill interview. Maul did not wake up Wednesday morning and declare, “Damn, I feel like talking to a reporter today.” He spoke to the press with the full blessing of his boss (the head of DIA) and probably General Milley and SecDef Lloyd Austin.

The Economist piece is titled, How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress. I want to highlight some key elements that were not published in the Newsweek piece:

An annual DIA report, “Soviet Military Power”, was read avidly during the cold war. But intangibles are just as important. Mr Maul singles out the will to fight—and candidly acknowledges that his agency got it wrong in Iraq in 2014 and Afghanistan in 2021, where American-built armies crumbled almost overnight. . . .

That experience, along with the evaporation of the Iraqi army in the face of the Islamic State group, led DIA to “over-correct” when judging how Ukraine would fare when Russia invaded last year. “We had a similar thought that they were just overwhelmed on paper.” It has proved a teachable moment. Mr Maul brandishes a 40-page “tradecraft note”, published this January, which re-examines how the agency measures a country’s will to fight.

I give Dr. Maul credit for one thing — he admitted that DIA got it wrong. At least he is consistent. Maul goes on describing DIA’s “methodology” notes that casualties, inadequate training and critical shortages in ammunition and other logistics will play a decisive role in whether or not Ukraine’s army remains a viable force. Maul’s explanation to the Economist correspondent is more nuanced than the rosy scenario painted by Ellie Cook in her Newsweek article..........more......