larry johnson presents evidence of a coming diesel shortage here in the empire;

 

 On paper, the United States should be the world’s safety valve in this fuel crisis. American refineries make far more diesel than Americans burn. But every one of those barrels is already spoken for. Between rising domestic demand, heavy export commitments and refineries running near their limit, the U.S. is drawing down its own stocks, not sitting on a surplus. And as Karl W. Miller shows in his latest assessment, dated September 29, the shock from the Gulf hits the world’s fuel supply twice: it starves refineries abroad of crude and removes finished fuel from the Gulf’s own refineries. America has no spare diesel to offer a world that has lost 1.6 million barrels a day of diesel exports from the Gulf and Russia combined. Until finished-fuel supply recovers, the gap will be closed by higher prices, less economic activity, or both.

The double hit from the Gulf
Miller’s September 29 assessment explains why the diesel shortage is worse than crude figures alone suggest. The Gulf shock hits world fuel supply through two separate channels at once.

The first is feedstock. When Gulf crude exports are disrupted, refineries in Asia, Europe and Africa lose the barrels they were set up to run. Replacement crudes can work, but not necessarily at the same yield, throughput or cost, because refinery units and hydrogen supply are configured around particular crudes. Miller’s rule of thumb is that every million barrels a day of crude that isn’t replaced means 300,000 to 500,000 b/d less diesel and jet fuel overseas...........more..............