larry johnson gives us a reality check on the world's fuel situation;

 

 Once again I am indebted to Karl W. Miller, whose analysis of the energy crisis unleashed by the war with Iran has become essential reading for me. Karl has a habit of seeing around corners. He anticipated the Houthi push in southern Yemen back in July, well before it made headlines, and his recent work on the global diesel shortage and the Gulf’s “double hit” has shaped much of what I have written here. His latest forward outlook, “The Gulf Restart Trap,” dated September 28, may be his most important yet. What follows is my summary of his findings.

The world is waiting for the moment the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Gulf’s oil begins to flow again. Karl argues that this moment will be widely misread. The first tanker to load, or the first refinery unit to restart, will not mark the end of the crisis. The Gulf states are trying to rebuild their energy systems in an active conflict zone. Major reconstruction will take years, and any new attack can destroy completed work, close export routes and force contractors to leave before permanent repairs are finished. Miller’s conclusion is blunt: the world must plan for a prolonged energy supply crisis. For the most severely damaged facilities, he estimates the repair cycle could run as long as five years, and longer still if renewed attacks interrupt the work.

The problem, he stresses, is not money. The Gulf states have capital. What they cannot buy on demand are replacement machinery, specialist crews, secure transport and stable operating conditions........more..........