Either (1) R0 is wrong (e.g. as I've postulated, perhaps -- likely -- a trinominal) or (2) the virus has a very high silent attack rate, was here for months before we knew it, and the cases it generated were in the noise of ordinary flu with negative tests, which are endemic every year.
Or both.
Literally since Diamond Princess was quarantined I've stated one or both had to be true. I've pointed it out every single day in podcasts and Tickers. It was obvious from the experience on the ship. It was also obvious when Wuhan unlocked and didn't have an instant explosion in new cases. It was obvious when South Korea was able to get the virus under control. It was obvious when Japan didn't instantly detonate when they didn't lock anything down.
Sweet Jesus... now Birx has flipped, along with Fauci.
WE SHUT DOWN THE NATION WITHOUT EVIDENCE AND WE STILL HAVE GRANDSTANDING MAYORS AND GOVERNORS TRYING TO OUT-STUPID EACH OTHER!
Yes, this bug is bad, especially if you're already medically compromised. But then again so is pneumonia from any source in such an individual, and the "regular" flu nails plenty of people with those sorts of conditions all the time -- to the tune of tens of thousands of people a year in the United States.
So what -- you mean when your chief scary model dude says "aw ****, whack a few zeros -- like three -- off my prognosticated death rate" you might have a problem trying to continue defending destroying the economy on purpose?..............read more......
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