FIVE MYTHS
Conspiracy theories
BY ROB BROTHERTON
Conspiracy theories have always been around, but lately, they’ve been
getting more attention. As the prevalence of conspiracy thinking among
the electorate and even within the highest offices of government has
become clear, conspiracism has inspired popular thinkpieces and
attracted scholars. Along the way, conspiracy theories have also
inspired plenty of myths. Here are five.
MYTH NO. 1
Conspiracy theories are for the lunatic fringe.!
Presenting fringe theories as the essence of conspiracism gives the
impression that conspiracy theorists are a handful of kooks who will
believe even the most ludicrous ideas. But conspiracy thinking — the
inclination to entertain conspiracy theories in general — is much more
widespread than belief in any particular theory.
More than half of Americans said they believed at least one of the
conspiracy theories they were asked about in surveys between 2006 and
2011, blaming the Iraq War on oil companies or the 9/11 attacks on U.S.
government insiders, for example. A recent survey found the same
proportion of conspiracy theorists among the British public.
MYTH NO. 2
C!
onspiracy theories are more common than ever.
"Are we entering a golden age of the conspiracy theory?" asked a 2017 headline in the Guardian.
The Internet — and social media in particular — is often blamed for fueling the fashion for conspiracism.
But there’s no good evidence that conspiracy theories are more popular than they used to be.
In the most thorough study to date, researchers combed through more
than 100,000 letters to the editor published in the New York Times and
the Chicago Tribune between 1890 and 2010. They found a stable
background hum of conspiracy theorizing, not an everincreasing
cacophony.
This fits with the historical record: Conspiracy theories !
didn’t suddenly flourish in the 21st century, or even the 20th.
They’ve always been with us, and people have spread them through whatever technology was available.
MYTH NO. 3
Conspiracy theories are all in people’s minds.
In 2018, the Independent ran the headline "Scientists discover the
reason people believe in conspiracy theories." The answer, the article
reported, is that it’s all in people’s heads.
Psychological findings do help explain why people believe or dismiss
conspiracy theories. But focusing exclusively on unconscious biases and
cognitive mistakes overlooks the fact tha!
t there is often a kernel of believability at the heart of these
theori!
es. Governments and organizations do things in secret. Intelligence
agencies plan assassinations and coups, spy on people, try to manipulate
public opinion.
Even if you’re pretty sure the
government didn’t develop HIV as a bioweapon to be deployed against
unsuspecting citizens, for example, to suggest that government
researchers might conduct secretive, unethical experiments involving the
health and autonomy of marginalized people isn’t crazy; it’s history.
Which is not to say that all conspiracy theories should be embraced.
But neither should conspiracy thinking be written off as a mere
psychological flaw.
MYTH NO. 4
Conspiracy theories are an existential threat to society.
In the first few days of August 2018, mainstream news headlines
described an emerging conspiracy theory as "bizarre," "dangerous,"
"terrifying" and a "deranged conspiracy cult."
Those articles were about QAnon, a loose collection of cryptic nonsense
that started online and manifested as a handful of people showing up at
President Trump’s rallies with homemade signs and shirts.
Though the articles implied a substantial number of believers, none reported any data.
Subsequent polling showed that many people — 4 in 10 �€!
” hadn’t heard of QAnon or didn’t know enough to have an opinion.
Among those who knew about it, it was viewed overwhelmingly
unfavorably. An analysis of the QAnon subreddit showed that a tiny but
vocal contingent of boosters was making almost all the noise about it on
the forum.
Most people who engage with ideas like this just sit back and watch,
probably treating the theories as a curiosity or entertainment.
MYTH NO. 5
Facts don’t change people’s minds about conspiracy theories.
In a 2010 study, people first read misleading claims and were then
given corrections to those claims. Reading the corrections appeared to
be largely ineffective and actually in!
creased mistaken beliefs among the people who had believed the
incorrect claims most strongly to begin with, in a bias called the
"backfire effect."
Recently, however, research has called the backfire effect into
question. In 2017, researchers ran studies in which more than 10,000
participants encountered 52 different claims and corrections. That work
found no backfire effect, concluding that by and large, "citizens heed
factual information" — even when it goes against what they are inclined
to believe. n
Brotherton is an academic psychologist at Barnard College and author of
"Suspicious Minds: Why We Believe Conspiracy Theories." This was
written for The Washington Post.
An Apollo 11 astronaut left a footprint on the moon in 1969. Most
people don’t believe the conspiracy theory that the moon landing was
faked by the U.S. government — but polls show that more than half of
Americans believe other dubious theories.
NASA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
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