if the war and blockade ended tomorrow, what would be the result;

 

 Reports that more oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz have been heralded as a win for the Trump administration, but experts say this kind of happy talk hides the fact that the war remains in a quagmire. As shipping costs rise and Iran continues to attack vessels, world markets — including fuel — will remain in peril for the foreseeable future.

In other words, no matter how much narrative-shaping is attempted to alter American perspectives before the midterms, prices for consumers will not come down to so-called pre-war levels in time for any change. If anything, the diesel crisis continues, as does the impact of ships carrying dry bulk (fertilizer, aluminum, petrochemicals, grains, sulfur, cement, industrial minerals, etc.) still stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Moreover, with news that another U.S. carrier strike group led by the USS Roosevelt has been sent to the Gulf, it is almost certain that President Donald Trump wants to keep the naval presence in place to protect these oil transfers (and perhaps support future military operations). But how long can the U.S. military sustain this costly level of activity in the Gulf in order to keep the fuel markets from going off a cliff? And it’s not like these ships are moving without challenge. Despite what Trump and defense secretary Pete Hegseth say about the obliteration of the Iranian military, attacks on vessels attempting to cross the Strait last week continued, many under the radar of the mainstream press...........more..........