the original inhabitants of palestine, the palestinians, may win in the long term; 

 

Is Israel winning its war with Hamas?

Not in the classic von Clausewitz sense of the word, because the purpose of war is to achieve a political end-state. What is the political end-state Israel hopes to achieve?

Israel wants to remove the Palestinians from Gaza. We know that; everyone knows that.

But that hasn’t happened, and after three years of relentless brutality, Israel is no closer to success than it was on October 8. They’re still stuck at Square 1. So, where’s the political end-state? Where’s the victory?

But what about Hamas? Is Hamas winning its war with Israel?

Yes, Hamas is winning its war with Israel for the simple reason that Hamas is achieving its strategic objectives which will lead to a political end-state. Keep in mind, we’re not talking here about the horrible price that is being paid by the Palestinian people. We realize that most of Gaza has been reduced to a wasteland and that hope is nowhere in sight. But that’s not the issue we’re addressing. We have narrowed our focus to the question of whether Hamas is achieving its objectives. That’s what we want to know. But, in order to do that, we have to identify what those objectives are.

Fortunately, we have the text of a speech by Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar (that was delivered on December 14, 2022) in which he presents Hamas’s strategy in the simplest of terms. Here’s what he said:.........more...............