Wednesday, May 29, 2024

 the continuing ukie assault on russians will now proceed to the finish line;


The upcoming summit, whether Piss or Peace, has all the makings of a debacle. Zelensky is no longer recognized by Russia as a legitimate negotiating partner; Joe Biden is taking a pass in order to raise bucks from the Hollywood glitterati, and none of the BRICS nations will attend. I suspect the Russians will use this meeting as an opportunity to deliver a powerful, embarrassing military strike that will underscore Ukraine’s precarious position.

There has been quite a bit of worry over the reports of two drone attacks on Russia’s strategic radar stations in Armavir and Orsk. Steve Bryen provides an excellent overview of the worst case. While these attacks show that Ukraine is desperate and willing to risk provoking a Russian nuclear response, albeit tactical, the actual effect in terms of damage is negligible. Moreover, the Russian Government and media’s muted response reflects, in my judgment, that this was a Ukrainian intelligence information operation, fully backed by the West, as opposed to a full-blown attack designed to cripple Russia’s strategic radar system.

I think the law of unintended consequences is going to take over. Russia is now probably reviewing its air defense systems around these facilities, having apparently discounted the drone threat. I would not be surprised to see Moscow take immediate steps to boost air defense, including the installation of powerful Electronic Warfare systems, in and around the strategic radar sites throughout Russia. Yes, Russia can walk and chew gum at the same time. Russia also will likely increase targeting of Ukrainian drone facilities and work with friendly neighboring countries, such as Kazakstan, to identify and destroy sabotage teams............more..........

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