pcr with current thoughts on ukraine;

Ukrainian Update #5

Paul Craig Roberts

This morning I am going to play Armchair General.  I will say upfront that I have little doubt, unless the Kremlin changes its mind, the Russian military operation in Ukraine will be successful, but not the success it could have been.  I also admit upfront that whereas I have some confidence in my information, I would not bet my life on all of it.  I also disclaim being pro-Putin, anti-Putin or taking sides in any way.  I also know that the Kremlin has more facts than I do.  The question is whether they have the right policy.

My thesis is this:  The Kremlin’s plan was flawed from the start, and, consequently, although the Ukraine will fall, the most important benefits–the end of provocations and respect for Russia’s red lines–will not be obtained by Russia.  The reason is that the limits placed on the military operation have needlessly lengthened the conflict and increased Russian casualties.

Here is the way President Putin describes the operation:  The plan is about protecting the population in Ukraine’s breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk and demilitarizing and de-Nazifying Ukraine without the use of heavy weapon fire in civilian population areas.  Russia, said Putin, is not going to conduct war indiscriminately as the US/NATO did in Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.  

This is both a noble and a practical position.  Ukraine has been an independent country only since 1991.  For centuries Ukraine was part of Russia.  Intermarriage between Ukrainians and Russians is extensive.  With the exception of the Bandera neo-Nazi elements in Western Ukraine, Ukraine is as much Russian as Ukrainian.  Putin stresses this and disavows any hostility toward Ukrainians other than the Russophobic neo-Nazis. He wants to spare Ukrainian lives and avoid destroying their cities  with a view toward better relations once the country is de-nazified.......read more..........