this person always seems to have his finger on the pulse of our economic world;
What I see is a global collapse of intangible capital that is invisible to most people.
It's only natural that the conventional expectation is a return to the pre-pandemic world is just a matter of time. Whether it's three months or six months or 18 months, "the good old days" will return just as if we turned back the clock.
I think the situation is much more akin to being injured. Since I worked for decades in construction, I've had numerous potentially serious injuries, including slipping off roofs, being perched on ladders that fell, my finger sliced open by a steel stud, high winds peeling a heavy sheet of plywood off a stack and sending it flying into me, etc.
Immediately after impact, your first instinct is to assess how badly you're injured. Of course we all hope we're not seriously hurt, but the initial adrenaline-fueled relief can be misleading: we might have suffered internal injuries that we can't feel.
That's the global situation: we want to assure ourselves the injury is minor and we'll be back on our feet in no time, but I think the financial-economic injuries are severe and to some branches of global capital and labor, fatal.
Those in power around the world crave one thing above all else: control. If you can't control the situation and key assets, then what good is your supposed power? If you can't control the situation and key assets, your power is illusory.
Those in power cannot completely control the forces unleashed by the pandemic. The tide has turned, and everyone trying to return their corner of the world to its pre-pandemic conditions is swimming against the tide--or shoveling sand against the tide, if you prefer that analogy. In either case, they will exhaust themselves and the tide will continue on, regardless of their titanic efforts to print money and maintain control of their populaces...........
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