larry johnson doesn't believe the orange man's blockade will succeed; 

 

The short answer to my question is, No! The US, notwithstanding Trump’s threats, is not going to deploy its Navy ships close to Iran’s shore… The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) Carrier Strike Group (CSG 3) learned this the hardway in March. The Lincoln CSG got within 210 miles of the Iranian southern coast in March but was forced to retreat to a position about 700 miles from the coast of Iran after it was attacked by a swarm of Iranian missiles and drones. So, any attempts to interdict a tanker will take place hundreds of miles off the coast of Iran.

An interdiction of a tanker is normally carried out via a helicopter air assault. This means the US must rely on ships capable of carrying and launching helicopters. At present, there are only three groups of US Navy ships that meet this criteria…The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) Carrier Strike Group (CSG 3) and the two US Marine Corps MEUs (i.e., Marine Expeditionary Units) — the 11th and the 31st.

The 31st MEU consists of the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) — America-class amphibious assault ship. It serves as the primary platform for Marine aviation (including F-35B Lightning IIs, MV-22 Ospreys, and helicopters) and command functions. It is supported by the USS New Orleans (LPD-18) — San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock. It arrived with the Tripoli and carries additional Marines, vehicles, and equipment, and by the USS Rushmore (LSD-47) — Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship. It was en route through the Strait of Malacca in early April and is heading to join the group in the Arabian Sea to provide additional heavy equipment and landing craft support.

The 11th MEU’s Flagship is the USS Boxer (LHD-4) — Wasp-class amphibious assault ship. It supports Marine aviation with F-35Bs, AV-8B Harriers (in some configurations), Ospreys, and helicopters. It is supported by the USS Portland (LPD-27) — San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock — and the.USS Comstock (LSD-45) — Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship. The Boxer ARG/11th MEU adds another ~4,000–4,500 total personnel (Marines + sailors) and is designed to overlap temporarily with the 31st MEU.

This means there are a total of 7 ships that can launch one or more helicopters for a take down mission. What seems like a simple mission becomes a problem when the tankers are 700 miles or more from the Iranian coast… Locating and tracking a ship, even a large tanker, is difficult. The farther the tanker moves from the coast of Iran, the search area grows proportionally larger, making it more difficult to find and locate a target. This ain’t the Caribbean and it certainly is not Venezuela...........more...........