larry johnson with more on the ukie scene including united russian positions on the whole thing;

Lest anyone think that Vladimir Putin is flying solo and making Russian policy based on his own personal whims… think again! A couple of statements today — the first, from Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President, and the second, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — reinforce my point that the Russian leadership is united in their view of negotiations with Ukraine… and they aren’t leaning towards making concessions.

Mr. Medvedev made the most consequential statement during his speech on May 20, 2025, at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum… Medvedev said:

“Ukraine has one last chance to preserve the remnants of its statehood. If it misses this chance, it will cease to exist as a state. Russia will then have no choice but to advance further and resolve the issue definitively.”

Let’s call this move, Istanbul 3. At the March 2022 negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine, the Russians agreed in principle to keep the Donbass as part of Ukraine. That was Istanbul 1.0. In June 2024, Putin spoke to senior officials Russian Foreign Ministry and presented Istanbul 2.0, which now included Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson as Russian territory, certified via a referenda in September 2022 in each of the four oblasts. With today’s statement regarding Ukraine’s political future, Medvedev introduced what appears to be Istanbul 3.0.

Medvedev went on to make three more critical observations:..........more..........