here be larry johnson with more on the war and where it might go; 

 

I’ll give you my answer up front… NO! Trump’s claims on Monday and Tuesday that the US and Iran are talking is false in my opinion. During previous talks with Iran — including the last round in Geneva on February 26 — the communications were indirect. An Oman government official was the intermediary… He would talk to Witkoff and Kushner in one room and then trundle off to another room where he would talk with the Iranian delegation. Any communication between Iran and the US is being carried out through intermediaries.

I believe Trump’s positive spin that Iran is ready to make a deal is nothing more than market manipulation with the goal being to lower the price of oil and boost the US stock market. Trump’s Monday announcement of a so-called five day ceasefire was intended to persuade US traders that the war with Iran is nearing a conclusion. I think Trump will continue issuing upbeat, positive statements until Friday then, after the markets close, he will announce that negotiations have collapsed because of Iranian intransigence.

Then what? Let’s first look at recent remarks by retired US General Keith Kellogg:

We don’t necessarily have to send troops into Iran, but we need to capture Kharg Island. We need to do it the way the Romans did. We need to put legions on the ground to secure the territory. I understand it’s risky. There’s always risk. But these guys, these young men and women, they understand the risk they’re taking to capture Kharg and open the Strait of Hormuz. Marine combat teams can open the lower part of the strait. And then I’d call on the 82nd Airborne Division or the Rangers to take Kharg Island. That way, I could essentially control the flow of oil out of Iran.

Taking Kharg Island will not open the Strait of Hormuz. All it will accomplish, besides a temporary disruption of the flow of Iranian oil which US Treasury Secretary Bessent has tacitly acknowledged is critical for keeping the price of oil from exploding, is to expose US forces on Kharg to an unrelenting barrage of drones, missiles and artillery. That means significant, if not massive, casualties for those US forces. Ditto for any attempt by US Marines to “open the lower part of the Strait.” With what? Neither the Marines nor the soldiers on Kharg will have heavy weapons, and Iran’s ability to shutter the Strait is not dependent on having their own troops on those islands. Iran, notwithstanding the presence of US troops on those islands, will still be able to attack any ship that tries to traverse the Strait of Hormuz with drones, missiles, maritime drones and torpedoes.

Amid the threat of a ground invasion of Iran, the Iranian Defense Council issued a statement on how it would respond:.............more.........