larry johnson has some thoughts and info on the iran war; 

 

I have been in contact with a friend who is privy to a source in West Asia that has some interesting insights into the behind the scenes activity to prevent a new US attack on Iran. Russia and China are busy trying to erect a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf, which includes Turkiye, that will push the US out of the Persian Gulf and leave the issue of security to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. Here is what my friend sent me today:

First, the Saudi position has evolved more than is generally appreciated. Riyadh was initially more open to a strike on Iran, but that stance has shifted sharply as the war has unfolded. The combination of Iran’s demonstrated ability to hit Saudi bases and infrastructure with missiles, and the visible presence of Pakistani troops and specialized personnel on Saudi soil, has pushed the Saudis toward a “defend the kingdom, avoid being the launchpad” posture. Pakistani units, including specialized air and air‑defense elements and military aircraft, are now operating on Saudi bases with a mandate that is clearly defensive. That gives the Saudis both political cover and operational capacity to say to Washington: we will prioritize the protection of our territory and regime, but we are not signing up to be the primary platform for a prolonged American air war against Iran.

In that context, two quiet developments are worth factoring into the picture. High‑level U.S. envoys have been moving through Islamabad carrying messages for Tehran, which suggests Washington is using Pakistan as an indirect channel to cool things down rather than prepare the ground for a full‑scale resumption of the war. On the nuclear track, Iran has shown some flexibility on enrichment parameters, but is holding a hard line on the fate of enriched stock: it is prepared to transfer some material to Russia, while firmly resisting any arrangement that would give Washington the kind of intrusive leverage it wants over its uranium inventory. That points toward managed friction and bargaining space, not capitulation................more..........