we have lost our war of choice on iran. it ain't done yet. it may become much more than originally thought; 

 

Prof Robert Pape – The Escalation Trap May 14, 2026

The headlines this week focused on Donald Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. Cameras followed the choreography. Analysts parsed the body language. Commentators debated tariffs, Taiwan, and great-power diplomacy.

But after the summit ends, something else will matter far more.

The new bomb damage assessments emerging from the Iran war.

Over the past several days, satellite imagery, leaked intelligence assessments, and independent reporting have begun revealing the extent of Iranian missile and drone strikes on American and Gulf infrastructure during the conflict. The images matter because they reveal something deeper than battlefield destruction.

They reveal the widening gap between tactical success and strategic success.

The United States demonstrated it could repeatedly strike Iran from the air. But Iran demonstrated something equally important: it could impose meaningful military and political costs on the American position in the Gulf without closing the Strait of Hormuz, without invading neighboring states, and without defeating the United States militarily in any conventional sense............more........