larry johnson has something of an update here in the iran war;

 

The two images above show the Strait of Hormuz when it was partially opened and now, when it is closed. For a brief moment on Friday, 17 April 2026, Donald Trump told a partial truth… The Strait of Hormuz was open for business, but only for ships that coordinated with and were approved by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. That all came to a sudden end on Saturday, 18 April, following Donald Trump inflammatory statements about blockading all Iranian ports. Iran made it clear to JD Vance during the final hours of their last meeting in Islamabad that Iran’s 10-point plan is non-negotiable.

The disruption of the global supply chain caused by Iran’s blockade is not fully grasped by most people. I liken it to radiation sickness… Assume that someone survives the blast of an atomic bomb but is bombarded with radiation. It may take days or weeks for the lethal effects to cause harm to the victim. In this case, the victim is the global economic, financial and industrial system. It will take months (for partial oil recovery) to several years (for full LNG, urea, and helium normalization) for Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels. This is due to a combination of physical destruction, logistical bottlenecks, security risks, and policy overhang from the 2026 Iran war (February–April 2026). Let’s review the factors that will prevent an immediate return to the exports levels that existed on 27 February. ........more..........