the key takeaway here? look to see who demands the war continue; 

 

Why did Israel target Ali Larijani, and what are the implications if it is confirmed that he was killed? (Update: Iran has confirmed Larijani's killing, hours after Israel's announced that they had killed him in an airstrike).

I see three potential motivations behind the assassination attempt:

One: Israel is trying to literally kill off Trump's off-ramps. Larijani was not only a key figure within the regime who had emerged as the chief consensus builder, but also someone who favored talks with the U.S. and who could build consensus within the system for an Iranian off-ramp at some point.

He also favored de-escalation with the GCC states and supported Pezeshkian's message on that point (though not the apology). There had been some efforts by Larijani to speak directly with senior Trump officials in December, for instance, to prevent the war.

The Israelis want the war to continue to further degrade Iran's military capabilities to shift the balance in the region in Israel's favor for years to come. They have fought for more than two decades to get the U.S. to go to full war with Iran, and having finally achieved that goal, they do not want Trump to cut the war short. Without figures like Larijani in the Iranian system, Trump's pathways to ending the war just got narrower...........more.........