Wednesday, April 27, 2022

 the dollar is on its way out, and here is some evidence on that;

For the first time since 1971 the US has defaulted on it’s banking obligations and the Petro Dollar system marking ‘peak Dollar.’  While only a handful of public figures have a handle on the situation, we are concerned that the White House is spreading dangerous misinformation on how Currency Markets work so we’d like to explain key points on the nuts and bolts of the soft default and what it means for the future of global currency markets.

  1. Safe Haven Default – The US Fed seized $800 Bn + in Russian and affiliated assets.  If you are an investor not from the United States, you are going to think twice about keeping your funds in ‘safe’ USA.  There are tons of alternatives such as Singapore, Switzerland, Dubai, Cayman Islands, to name a few.  To say it differently, the ‘flight to safety’ is no longer ‘buy Dollars’ – it doesn’t matter what is going to replace the USD, it’s important that it’s being replaced.
  2. Petro Dollar Default – By sanctioning the world’s largest oil producer, Russia demanded payments for Oil in Rubles, making the new global go to Currency for Oil – Rubles.  In parallel, Russia pegged the Ruble to Gold, making the Ruble backed by Oil and Gold.  Most BRICs either followed suit or agreed to trade Oil in Yuan or Rubles.  The Biden administration’s blocking US Oil production was not helpful, nor was the signaling by US leaders they will fight inflation with more inflation.  China agreed to settle Oil in Rubles or Yuan for it’s thirsty manufacturing base, setting a strong non-USD precedent.
  3. SWIFT shift to SPFS-CIPS – The Russian ban on SWIFT forced those banned to seek alternatives.  Both Russia and China had SWIFT alternatives that they’ve been developing for many years such as the CIPS system [3] and Singapore based Nium [4]..........read more.......

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