Sunday, February 27, 2022

this entry is from the vietnamese blogger i have posted from before. he's got some info on the ukraine scene from someone connected to witnesses; 


I just finished a conversation with my friend Gary in London. Gary met Marina when she was living in our house six years ago. They just celebrated their fourth anniversary.  Gary understands war. He was a forward artillery spotter in the jungles of Laos and Cambodia during Vietnam. He has been following the news constantly, and gets updates from Marina’s mother in southern Ukraine and friends in Russia.

Gary confirmed my observation that the Russians do not have air superiority. That is why there are no fighter aircraft or helicopters in the skies here over Kyiv. Useful as they would be to support Russian armor, they would be too exposed. Ukraine retains a certain amount of air power to defend itself.

The Ukrainian Army has put up much stiffer than expected opposition. Although troops from Crimea entered a number of Southern Ukrainian cities on day one, they have been pushed out of many of the larger ones. Gary names Mariupol, Odessa and Kherson.   He said that they have not been a able to enter Kharkiv.  They are bogged down, way  behind  the timetable they had set for themselves. Gary says that he and I are not the only prognosticators to have seriously underestimated the Ukrainian resistance. Or, conversely, overestimated Russian invincibility.

The bridge at Kherson saw heavy fighting. Russia's blitzkrieg attack secured the bridge on the first day, but the Ukrainians won it back.  Russia returned and held it for a couple of hours, before the Ukrainians again repulsed them. During that couple of hours, however, a significant convoy carrying supplies to the north and west was able to cross. After the recapture the bridge was strewn with Russian corpses. Gary reports that the Russians remain in his mother-in-law's town of Golaya Pristan, on the east side of the river. They are staying in their tanks and not bothering the locals.

It appeared the objective was to capture Kyiv within three days. It has not happened. The Russians have experienced significant losses in firefights approaching Kyiv. The Gostomel military airport just north of the city, captured by helicopter on the first day, has been recaptured, perhaps more than once. Gary says that one recapture left Russians with no place to land, resulting in a "turkey shoot."

Gary reports that Kyiv seems to be the key. The Russians will not expend resources to capture provincial towns until the capital is captured. But that has not yet happened and does not appear imminent. The Russians are probably constrained by supplies, given the unexpected resistance they encountered in the South, and by a lack of air support. They are also constrained by the imperative of not inflicting unnecessary civilian casualties..........read more.......

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