larry johnson sees more political adventures in the 'estimate' game;

Following up on my critique of the current US intelligence community’s conclusions in the current Annual Threat Assessment regarding Russian losses, this is not an aberration or departure from standard operating procedure. Instead, it is the natural result of political pressure and bureaucratic cowardice preventing analysts from telling hard truths to political masters.

I had a conversation today with one of my retired buddies. who had a distinguished career with the United States Army Intelligence and Security Command (aka INSCOM). We touched on the topic of the failure of the intelligence community to do accurate predictions about issues like troop strength, casualties and capability. He recounted the experience he had in trying to provide accurate intel on the strength of North Korea’s military force way back in the early 1980s.

My friend, who was a senior non-commissioned officer at the time, worked with a young Army Captain, let’s call him John in the US Army intel section in South Korea. John, using reams of empirical data produced an estimate of North Korea’s military strength that contradicted the existing US Army belief that North Korea was relatively weak. My friend was directed by his commanding officer to review John’s work and expose his flaws. Well, my buddy completed his work and reported, “John’s product is 85% correct.” The commander was not happy to hear that and asked, “what is wrong with the other 15%?” My INSCOM pal replied, “John underestimated the strength of North Korea on those particular issues.”........more.........